Week 10 NFL Picks

**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Nov. 9)

Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) @ Denver Broncos (7-2)

The Broncos narrowly escaped with a win on the road in Houston last week and find themselves atop the AFC West. I think Bo Nix has been inconsistent, but their defense is elite and should carry them to a win here. Pick: Broncos, 24-13.

Line: Broncos -9

ML: Broncos

Spread: Broncos

Atlanta Falcons (3-5) @ Indianapolis Colts (7-2)

This game will be played in Germany, which can make it tricky to know how these two teams will react to the travel. I'll lean with the Colts here who seem to be in a rhythm on both sides of the ball and destined for a playoff spot. Pick: Colts, 26-17.

Line: Colts -6.5

ML: Colts

Spread: Colts

New Orleans Saints (1-8) @ Carolina Panthers (5-4)

The Panthers have quietly flown under the radar and after a surprise win on the road in Green Bay last week, they find themselves firmly planted in the NFC wildcard race. Much of their success has been based around their ground game and Rico Dowdle will look to continue on his strong season. Pick: Panthers, 24-17.

Line: Panthers -5.5

ML: Panthers

Spread: Panthers

New York Giants (2-7) @ Chicago Bears (5-3)

The Bears have really found their groove offensively and Caleb Williams is starting to play with a lot of confidence in and out of the huddle. I think the Giants will start to regress a bit here in the second half of the year, as there just simply isn't enough talent around Jaxson Dart to make an impact. Pick: Bears, 26-16.

Line: Bears -4.5

ML: Bears

Spread: Bears

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) @ Houston Texans (3-5)

The Texans are slight favorites in this game besides the fact that C.J. Stroud will sit this game out in the concussion protocol. The Jags are coming off an OT thriller last week over the Raiders and I think they create some separation as they continue to chase down the Colts for the AFC South title. Pick: Jaguars, 21-17.

Line: Texans -1

ML: Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars

Buffalo Bills (6-2) @ Miami Dolphins (2-7)

The Bills came away with a huge win over the Chiefs last week, which will carry some weight come late December when determining AFC tiebreakers. Doubly important is their battle with the Pats for the AFC East crown, so the Bills will need a hard fought win in Miami this week. Pick: Bills, 31-21.

Line: Bills -9.5

ML: Bills

Spread: Bills

Baltimore Ravens (3-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-4)

Lamar Jackson was his usual self in a return to action last week and now the Ravens need to get a little momentum going to climb back into the playoff race. I think this will be a tough matchup on the road in front of an energized Minnesota crowd. Pick: Ravens, 26-21.

Line: Ravens -4

ML: Ravens

Spread: Vikings

Cleveland Browns (2-6) @ New York Jets (1-7)

This is a dud of a game and whoever loses it might be one step closer to cementing their pick atop the draft board next May. After trading two defensive cornerstones, the Jets will try to piece together a better effort against a tough Browns defensive front. Pick: Jets, 27-24.

Line: Browns -2

ML: Jets

Spread: Jets

New England Patriots (7-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)

This could be the game of the week as Mike Vrabel leads the Patriots into a tough road matchup with the Bucs. It will be interesting to see if Todd Bowles can dial up some blitz packages to throw Drake Maye off his game, who has looked calm and collected in the pocket in the first half of the season. Pick: Buccaneers, 26-23.

Line: Buccaneers -2.5

ML: Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers

Arizona Cardinals (3-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

The Seahawks have been a surprise this season and have a great opportunity to come away with a divisional win at home against a banged up Cards team. Jacoby Brissett has been solid in relief of Kyler Murray and it wouldn't surprise me to see them hang around in this game. Pick: Seahawks, 28-23.

Line: Seahawks -7

ML: Seahawks

Spread: Cardinals

Los Angeles Rams (6-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-3)

The Niners got the better of the Rams earlier this year and now it's time to return the favor. With Mac Jones starting again for the Niners, we will see if he can double up the Rams this season. Pick: Rams, 30-23.

Line: Rams -6

ML: Rams

Spread: Rams

Detroit Lions (5-3) @ Washington Commanders (3-6)

The Commanders might be headed for a lost season if they lose this game and considering Jayden Daniels will likely miss a few weeks with his elbow injury, it seems likely. I think the Lions get back on track here after losing a tough matchup at home to the Vikings last week. Pick: Lions, 34-20.

Line: Lions -8

ML: Lions

Spread: Lions

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)

This is a big Sunday night matchup between two teams that could be in the AFC playoff picture come January. I think the Chargers need a strong defensive performance here after I saw Mike Tomlin breakthrough to his own defense the last couple of weeks. Can they bring the pressure on Aaron Rodgers and force a couple of turnovers? Pick: Chargers, 24-17.

Line: Chargers -2.5

ML: Chargers

Spread: Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) @ Green Bay Packers (5-2-1)

Another primetime matchup with huge playoff implications and for Micah Parsons, he will line up opposite a team he knows all too well in the Eagles. I'm going to lean Eagles here as I think the Packers have shown inconsistencies this season, and that was evident at home to the Panthers last week. Pick: Eagles, 24-23.

Line: Packers -1

ML: Eagles

Spread: Eagles

Results

Week 9

ML: 9-5

ATS: 7-7

Overall

ML: 88-47 (65.2%)

ATS: 70-65 (51.9%)