Week 11 NFL Picks

**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Nov. 15)

New York Jets (2-7) @ New England Patriots (8-2)

The Pats are red hot, entering this game winners of seven straight. Mike Vrabel has this team playing at a high level and believing they can win the AFC East and possibly more than that. Pick: Patriots, 30-16.

Line: Patriots -12.5

ML: Patriots

Spread: Patriots

Washington Commanders (3-7) @ Miami Dolphins (3-7)

These two teams are a longshot to make the playoffs, but will find themselves playing in Spain as part of the NFL's European tour. It's a tough matchup to pick, but I'll lean with the healthier squad here in the Dolphins. Pick: Dolphins, 26-21.

Line: Dolphins -2.5

ML: Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins

Carolina Panthers (5-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-6)

The Panthers were very much in the NFC wildcard conversation just a couple of weeks ago, riding the high of a big road win over the Packers. Now, they're fighting to stay in the race against a pesky Falcons team that might be better than their record indicates. Pick: Falcons, 26-23.

Line: Falcons -3.5

ML: Falcons

Spread: Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) @ Buffalo Bills (6-3)

Both of these teams are vying for the lead in their respective divisions and the last time they met in Buffalo, the Bucs came away with a win. If the Bills can limit the big play opportunities for Emeka Egbuka, they might sneak out of here with a much needed win at home and keep the pressure on the Pats. Pick: Bills, 24-23.

Line: Bills -5.5

ML: Bills

Spread: Bills

Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)

The Chargers have had a couple of dud losses and this could be a letdown after three straight wins. The Jags desperately need this game and Trevor Lawrence needs to get back on track, which will be a tall task against a tough Chargers defense, but I think they'll get a win at home in Duval. Pick: Jaguars, 24-21.

Line: Chargers -3

ML: Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars

Chicago Bears (6-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-5)

This will be a tough NFC North matchup with the Vikings trying to get back to .500 and pick up a big divisional win over the Bears. I like the Vikes to stand pat at home here and keep the division interesting down the stretch. Pick: Vikings, 26-23.

Line: Vikings -2.5

ML: Vikings

Spread: Vikings

Green Bay Packers (5-3-1) @ New York Giants (2-8)

The Packers are struggling offensively right now and despite their record, the Giants have a tough defensive front that could create problems for Jordan Love. I think the Giants will play with a little energy now that Brian Daboll was fired, so look for them to keep this game close. Pick: Packers, 20-16.

Line: Packers -7

ML: Packers

Spread: Giants

Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)

There has been a new energy around Bengals practice with the return of Joe Burrow after his 21-day practice window opened earlier in the week. There won't be much margin for error down the stretch for the Bengals if they hope to make the playoffs, and a divisional road win could light a spark. Pick: Steelers, 24-23.

Line: Steelers -5.5

ML: Steelers

Spread: Bengals

Houston Texans (4-5) @ Tennessee Titans (1-8)

It very much looks like the Texans will be without C.J. Stroud for a second week in a row as they try to climb their way back into the AFC wildcard race. Regardless of the starter, I still like the Titans to play scrappy here. We saw the Jags overlook the Texans last week and blow a 19-point lead in the 4th quarter; anything can happen. Pick: Texans, 19-16.

Line: Texans -6

ML: Texans

Spread: Titans

San Francisco 49ers (6-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-6)

We've seen the Niners hang around the NFC playoff picture despite being without Brock Purdy for much of the season and now he will finally return to game action. It's great timing for a team that needs a lift with some softer games coming up on the schedule. Pick: 49ers, 26-21.

Line: 49ers -3

ML: 49ers

Spread: 49ers

Seattle Seahawks (7-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (7-2)

This is a huge matchup for the landscape of the NFC West as the Seahawks have been a bit of a surprise this season, led by Sam Darnold. I would imagine these two teams exchange offensive blows, but ultimately, I'll lean on Matthew Stafford's experience down the stretch as he's been making his own case for MVP honors. Pick: Rams, 33-27.

Line: Rams -3

ML: Rams

Spread: Rams

Baltimore Ravens (4-5) @ Cleveland Browns (2-7)

The Ravens need to pick up some steam and they got a welcomed lift with Lamar Jackson's return to the lineup last week. Despite this being a division game, the Ravens should control this from start to finish and find their way back to .500 on the year. Pick: Ravens, 24-15.

Line: Ravens -7.5

ML: Ravens

Spread: Ravens

Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) @ Denver Broncos (8-2)

Another huge divisional game as the Chiefs really need a win to bounce back in the AFC playoff race. The Broncos are riddled with injuries and will be without J.K. Dobbins and Patrick Surtain this week. Bo Nix continues his inconsistent play, and the Broncos will need a big game from him here. Pick: Chiefs, 24-17.

Line: Chiefs -4

ML: Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs

Detroit Lions (6-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)

The schedule is loaded with pivotal playoff matchups this week and this game will round them out as it's a potential NFC Championship game preview between the Eagles and Lions. The Eagles have come away with some tough wins in recent weeks, but the offense is concerning. I like Dan Campbell's squad to walk into Philly and stun the home crowd. Pick: Lions, 24-20.

Line: Eagles -2.5

ML: Lions

Spread: Lions

Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)

The Cowboys come into this primetime game after a much needed bye week and have an opportunity to get back in the win column. Demarvion Overshown rejoins a defense that hasn't shown much resilience this season and we will see if that allows for their offense to be less aggressive in fourth-down situations.

Line: Cowboys -3.5

ML: Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys

Results

Week 10

ML: 10-4

ATS: 5-9

Overall

ML: 98-51 (65.8%)

ATS: 75-74 (50.3%)