Week 12 NFL Picks

All betting lines from bet365.com (Updated Nov. 22)

Buffalo Bills (7-3) @ Houston Texans (5-5)

The Texans are 2-0 with Davis Mills starting at quarterback, and he's done a fine job game-managing with a solid defensive front. I think this game will be tighter than anticipated and may come down to which pass rush forces the most mistakes. Pick: Bills, 23-20.

Line: Bills -4.5

ML: Bills

Spread: Texans

New York Jets (2-8) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-5)

The Ravens will enter a fairly tough stretch of their schedule after this game, so I would expect John Harbaugh's crew to take advantage here. The Jets are a team destined for a high draft pick next year and their defense is a shell of its former self after losing Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline. Pick: Ravens, 28-13.

Line: Ravens -13.5

ML: Ravens

Spread: Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) @ Chicago Bears (7-3)

It sounds like Aaron Rodgers will be a game-time decision this week after suffering a broken bone in his non-throwing wrist. It seems like team doctors are hesitant to let him play, so I'm going to lean on the side that he will sit this one out, giving the Bears a slight edge here. Pick: Bears, 23-16.

Line: Bears -2.5

ML: Bears

Spread: Bears

New England Patriots (9-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-7)

Traditionally, the Bengals have played the Pats tough, but it's a bit premature to welcome Joe Burrow back into the lineup as he will sit this one out. The Pats might be due for a bit of a letdown game here, but the AFC East is there's to lose. Pick: Patriots, 24-19.

Line: Patriots -7.5

ML: Patriots

Spread: Bengals

New York Giants (2-9) @ Detroit Lions (6-4)

The Giants's season has spiraled out of control after a promising few weeks from rookies Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo. The only thing that might keep this game closer than anticipated is the play of Jameis Winston, but I don't think he will be good enough to play spoiler. Pick: Lions, 33-17.

Line: Lions -13

ML: Lions

Spread: Lions

Minnesota Vikings (4-6) @ Green Bay Packers (6-3-1)

It's hard to get a gauge on the Packers's offensive struggles in recent weeks and if Josh Jacobs can't suit up for this game, it may be another nailbiter. These divisional matchups can be tough, and despite J.J. McCarthy's inconsistencies, I think the Vikes keep it close. Pick: Packers, 21-18.

Line: Packers -6.5

ML: Packers

Spread: Vikings

Indianapolis Colts (8-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)

This might be the most important game of the year for the Chiefs, who have been on the wrong side of several one score games this year. It very much looks like the division is out of reach, so they will have to grind their way into a wildcard spot the rest of the way. Pick: Chiefs, 24-20.

Line: Chiefs -3

ML: Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs

Seattle Seahawks (7-3) @ Tennessee Titans (1-9)

This should be a cupcake game for a Seahawks team that ranks Top 5 in passing yards and scoring. If they could find a way to get their run game going, they would be even more dangerous and that will be something head coach Mike Macdonald will have to figure out heading into playoff time. Pick: Seahawks, 27-13.

Line: Seahawks -13

ML: Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-7)

This game has the potential to be an upset, but I don't like the fact that Jacoby Brissett will have limited options in the pass game. The Jags need wins down the stretch here as they will be entering some tough divisional matchups and I think this is a game they desperately need on the road. Pick: Jaguars, 26-21.

Line: Jaguars -2.5

ML: Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars

Cleveland Browns (2-8) @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-8)

This matchup is a snoozefest as both of these teams have a decent shot at the top pick in next year's draft. The Raiders (like several other teams) passed on Shedeur Sanders in the draft, so he might be playing with a bit of a chip on his shoulder Sunday. Pick: Raiders, 23-16.

Line: Raiders -4

ML: Raiders

Spread: Raiders

Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1)

The Cowboys are clinging to their playoff lives and this is a must-win against a the rival Eagles. With several key defensive players returning in recent weeks and the acquisitions up front made at the trade deadline, this will be a measuring stick game for the Cowboys. Pick: Cowboys, 24-23.

Line: Eagles -3

ML: Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons (3-7) @ New Orleans Saints (2-8)

The Falcons will turn to veteran Kirk Cousins the rest of the way this season and now might be a good time to lean on the backfield duo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Pick: Falcons, 23-20.

Line: Saints -2

ML: Falcons

Spread: Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) @ Los Angeles Rams (8-2)

This is a pivotal Sunday night matchup with both of these teams leading their respective divisions. A loss for the Bucs could put them in a potential tie with the Panthers (depending on the finish to Monday night's game) and make the landscape of the NFC South interesting. Pick: Rams, 29-22.

Line: Rams -7

ML: Rams

Spread: Rams

Carolina Panthers (6-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

The Panthers have been a surprise this year and have an opportunity to walk away with the NFC South lead after this game. The Niners on the other hand, appear to be getting healthy at the right time and Brock Purdy looked polished in his return to the lineup last week. Pick: 49ers, 28-20.

Line: 49ers -7

ML: 49ers

Spread: 49ers

Results

Week 11

ML: 11-4

ATS: 8-6-1

Overall

ML: 109-55 (66.5%)

ATS: 83-80-1 (50.6%)