Week 18 NFL Picks

All betting lines from bet365.com (Updated Jan. 4)

Carolina Panthers (8-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

The funny thing about this matchup is it doesn't decide the NFC South winner and with a Bucs win, the drama will build to Sunday as it will be the Falcons/Saints game that launches one of these two teams into a playoff spot. I think we get some Baker magic to end the regular season and then we'll see if that's enough come Sunday. Pick: Buccaneers, 23-16.

Line: Buccaneers -3

ML: Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers

Seattle Seahawks (13-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

This is a huge matchup in the Bay area as the 49ers have clawed their way back into a position to be able to steal the NFC West right out from under the Seahawks. There are some injury concerns -- no Trent Williams -- but, this has been a resilient team all season long and I think they get it done at home. Pick: 49ers, 24-20.

Line: Seahawks -2.5

ML: 49ers

Spread: 49ers

New Orleans Saints (6-10) @ Atlanta Falcons (7-9)

These two teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, but this game is important nonetheless in determining if the Bucs or Panthers will clinch a home playoff game next week. The formula is simple, if the Saints win then the Bucs move on and if the Falcons win then the Panthers move on. Pick: Falcons, 26-19.

Line: Falcons -3.5

ML: Falcons

Spread: Falcons

Cleveland Browns (4-10) @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)

The "Battle of Ohio" is a game all about pride. The Browns pulled off the upset last week over the Steelers and will try to end the season on a high note and slow down the Bengals' high-powered offense. Pick: Bengals, 28-20.

Line: Bengals -7.5

ML: Bengals

Spread: Bengals

Indianapolis Colts (8-8) @ Houston Texans (11-5)

It doesn't sound like Philip Rivers will be back in a Colts uniform (or any NFL uniform) next season, so this should be his last hurrah. It's tough to think he will play spoiler against a tough Texans defense and a team looking to nab the division title. Pick: Texans, 24-17.

Line: Texans -10.5

ML: Texans

Spread: Colts

Tennessee Titans (3-13) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)

The Jags can clinch the division with a win here, and with a little help from the Broncos and Pats, there is an outside chance they can get the top seed in the AFC throughout the playoffs. Pick: Jaguars, 27-20.

Line: Jaguars -13.5

ML: Jaguars

Spread: Titans

Green Bay Packers (9-6-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (8-8)

This line isn't that surprising considering the Packers can't move out of the final wildcard spot in the NFC and I would suspect Matt LaFleur will be cautious rolling Jordan Love out there just one week removed from the concussion protocol. Pick: Vikings, 24-17.

Line: Vikings -10.5

ML: Vikings

Spread: Packers

Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1) @ New York Giants (3-13)

This is an interesting spot for both teams when it comes to draft position in May, but more importantly for the Giants. A loss here still gives them a shot at landing the top pick (at worst second overall), but a win could see them fall as low as the seventh spot. Pick: Cowboys, 24-20.

Line: Cowboys -3

ML: Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys

New York Jets (3-13) @ Buffalo Bills (11-5)

I would be surprised to see Josh Allen playing for any length of time in this game unless Sean McDermott seems dead set on trying to secure that 4/5 matchup in the playoffs. I think the Jets are playing for some pride here and something to build off heading into next season. Pick: Jets, 20-17.

Line: Bills -8

ML: Jets

Spread: Jets

Detroit Lions (8-8) @ Chicago Bears (11-5)

The Bears are gunning for the NFC's second seed, looking to hold off the Eagles and I think Dan Campbell and the Lions would love nothing more to ruin those plans. The Bears have shown a lot of resilience late in games this season with several comeback wins in the 4th quarter; will this be another game that goes down to the wire? Pick: Lions, 26-23.

Line: Bears -3.5

ML: Lions

Spread: Lions

Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) @ Denver Broncos (13-3)

The Chargers are resting everybody this week as they prepare for a wildcard matchup next weekend. For the Broncos, it's about executing at home and locking up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Pick: Broncos, 28-13.

Line: Broncos -14

ML: Broncos

Spread: Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs (6-10) @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)

There are reports circling this week that Pete Carroll will not return as the Raiders' head coach next year. Also headlining the Raiders' week are if they will lock up the top pick in the NFL draft with a loss to the Chiefs. We've seen the Chiefs fall off a cliff this season and next year looks murky with the uncertainty of Patrick Mahomes' health. Pick: Chiefs, 20-13.

Line: Chiefs -4.5

ML: Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs

Arizona Cardinals (3-13) @ Los Angeles Rams (11-5)

I'm leaning on the Niners winning Saturday night and giving the Rams nothing to play for in this game as they will be locked into that sixth seed for the wildcard weekend. Pick: Cardinals, 24-17.

Line: Rams -14

ML: Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals

Miami Dolphins (7-9) @ New England Patriots (13-3)

The Patriots need a win here to have any chance at home field advantage throughout the playoffs and it will have to come against a Dolphins team that has shown some life in recent weeks with Quinn Ewers at quarterback. Pick: Patriots, 26-17.

Line: Patriots -13

ML: Patriots

Spread: Dolphins

Washington Commanders (4-12) @ Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)

Games like this are tricky to call because of potential coaching decisions this late into the year. I'm not sure we will get a full game from Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, but I'll lean on the Eagles here to have a solid first half to be enough to hang on in this game late. Pick: Eagles, 26-21.

Line: Eagles -4.5

ML: Eagles

Spread: Eagles

Baltimore Ravens (8-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)

This is the Sunday night finale of the regular season with all the cards hanging in the balance. It's a win and you're in scenario for both teams and the AFC North title on the line. Despite Lamar Jackson returning for this matchup, I still like the Steelers at home to sneak in the playoffs. Pick: Steelers, 24-23.

Line: Ravens -3.5

ML: Steelers

Spread: Steelers

Results

Week 17

ML: 9-7

ATS: 8-8

Overall

ML: 165-91 (64.5%)

ATS: 134-120-2 (52.3%)