Week 3 NFL Picks

All betting lines from bet365.com (Updated Sept. 26)

Atlanta Falcons (0-2) @ Green Bay Packers (1-1)

The Falcons continue to play quarterback carousel and will trot out Michael Penix Jr. for his first start of the season after recovering from another knee surgery. Kevin Stefanski is 5-0 on Thursday night and I would think this Falcons team will be playing desperate football, but will it be enough against a Packers team capable of late-game heroics like we saw last week? Pick: Packers, 23-20.

Line: Packers -4.5

ML: Packers

Spread: Falcons

Los Angeles Chargers (0-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-0)

This is not the start the Chargers had hoped for, dropping their first two games (cupcake matchups by the way) and now they have a gauntlet to go through on their upcoming schedule. Teams in this spot typically play with everything on the line and this could be their best effort to start the season, but I think the Bills hold them off. Pick: Bills, 27-23.

Line: Bills -7.5

ML: Bills

Spread: Chargers

Carolina Panthers (1-1) @ Cleveland Browns (1-1)

The Browns came away with a win in what was a scrappy effort last week in Tampa, maybe proving this isn't the same old Browns? I think Bryce Young has really come around as the starter for this Panthers team and his confidence should continue to grow this week. Pick: Panthers, 23-17.

Line: Panthers -2.5

ML: Panthers

Spread: Panthers

New York Jets (1-1) @ Detroit Lions (1-1)

Aaron Glenn and Dan Campbell will reunite, this time on opposite sidelines as the Lions look for another win at home. This Jets team is playing with a little more grit out of the gate this season, but I think the Lions offense will prove to be overwhelming. Pick: Lions, 28-20.

Line: Lions -6.5

ML: Lions

Spread: Lions

Houston Texans (0-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (0-2)

This is a big game in the AFC South as neither team can afford to fall to 0-3. The Texans have been here before and without Nico Collins in the lineup this seems like a must-win to get back on the right track. I've been waiting for the defense to show up this season and there is no bigger spot than in this game. Pick: Texans, 24-21.

Line: Texans -1.5

ML: Texans

Spread: Texans

New England Patriots (1-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)

The Jags let last week's game slip in the second half and now direct their attention to the Pats. Two young quarterbacks with something to prove and I'll lean towards Trevor Lawrence to get the job done late in this game as the Jags come out on top with a big win. Pick: Jaguars, 28-23.

Line: Jaguars -3

ML: Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars

Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) @ Miami Dolphins (0-2)

A lot of growing pains exist in Miami as expected and now they host a Chiefs team hungry to stay undefeated. Pick: Chiefs, 31-17.

Line: Chiefs -10.5

ML: Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs

Tennessee Titans (0-2) @ New York Giants (1-1)

The Giants will have to navigate the rest of their season without Jaxson Dart under center following last week's injury. Can the young group step up offensively and will they lean more heavily on Cam Skattebo? Pick: Giants, 21-17.

Line: Giants -2.5

ML: Giants

Spread: Giants

Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)

There were some question marks about the backfield for the Steelers heading into this game, but Jaylen Warren will be out there on Sunday. While the Bengals are likely the long-term play in the division, I think the Steelers steal a home win here. Pick: Steelers, 26-24.

Line: Bengals -3.5

ML: Steelers

Spread: Steelers

Seattle Seahawks (2-0) @ Washington Commanders (0-2)

The Seahawks will have Sam Darnold back for this game after being absent since the first quarter of Week 1 with a glute injury. This is a big boost for a team that has wrote the ship defensively through two weeks. Pick: Seahawks, 27-17.

Line: Seahawks -7.5

ML: Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals (1-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-0)

The Niners have been healthy to start the year and the offense has been gelling once again, but the only question mark now is the absence of Nick Bosa for the next few weeks. I expect Brock Purdy to continue to roll here and keep this team undefeated. Pick: 49ers, 31-24.

Line: 49ers -8.5

ML: 49ers

Spread: Cardinals

Minnesota Vikings (2-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2)

With Kyler Murray returning to the lineup, the Vikings will get some mobility at quarterback -- will Todd Bowles be able to mitigate that with his zone defense scheme? I think the Bucs will be playing this game like it's their Super Bowl as an 0-3 start could prove disastrous for their chances at an NFC South crown. Pick: Buccaneers, 23-20.

Line: Vikings -1.5

ML: Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers

Baltimore Ravens (1-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

This will be the league's first game played in Brazil and all reports throughout the week have indicated that the field conditions are questionable at best. It's hard to know which part of the offense this will affect the most, but the game could lean to the under here with the elements. Pick: Ravens, 26-21.

Line: Ravens -3.5

ML: Ravens

Spread: Ravens

Las Vegas Raiders (2-0) @ New Orleans Saints (1-1)

The Saints have played well through two weeks and if not for some overtime heroics from the Lions in Week 1, they might be 2-0 right now. Look for their defensive scheme to confuse Kirk Cousins and this Raiders offense, while Tyler Shough continues to take the next step. Pick: Saints, 27-20.

Line: Saints -3.5

ML: Saints

Spread: Saints

Los Angeles Rams (1-1) @ Denver Broncos (1-1)

This is a big showdown on Sunday night and the Rams will be without their star wideout Puka Nacua for a second straight week. I like the Broncos at home here where Bo Nix and Sean Payton seem to click the most, in a game that could come down to the wire. Pick: Broncos, 26-23.

Line: Rams -2.5

ML: Broncos

Spread: Broncos

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) @ Chicago Bears (1-1)

The news broke that Caleb Williams is looking at a 3-4 week timeline with his hamstring strain and so the Bears will need to find a way without him. The Eagles should be in control of this game from start to finish and it looks like DeVonta Smith will suit up, giving Jalen Hurts his top receiving option. Pick: Eagles, 26-17.

Line: Eagles -4.5

ML: Eagles

Spread: Eagles

Results

Week 2

ML: 10-6 (62.5%)

ATS: 7-9 (43.8%)

Overall

ML: 21-11 (65.6%)

ATS: 17-15 (53.1%)