Week 4 NFL Picks

We were on the wrong side of a few outcomes last week, especially the Texans losing to the Bears on a late 4th quarter pick by Davis Mills. The Dolphins held firm in the Miami heat, outlasting the Bills to pick up a divisional win and it's hard to get a read on what type of team the Bucs will be this year after a tough loss at home to the Packers. On to Week 4 where the NFL will start its London tour this week.

**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Oct. 2)

Miami Dolphins (3-0) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)

The Dolphins came away with a scrappy win over the Bills last week and the question is at what cost? Tua Tagovailoa briefly left the game with what was called a "back injury" that created a lot of skepticism as he wobbled over to the sidelines. I think the Bengals really need this win and I question Tagovailoa's readiness for this one. Pick: Bengals, 23-17.

Line: Bengals -4

ML: Bengals

Spread: Bengals

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) vs New Orleans Saints (1-2)

This is the first game of the London series this season and the Saints are travelling very thin to the U.K. with Jameis Winston, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas both out for this game. I think this is where the Vikings start to take off a little bit and expect Justin Jefferson to find space in behind the secondary for some big plays. Pick: Vikings, 26-16.

Line: Vikings -4

ML: Vikings

Spread: Vikings

Buffalo Bills (2-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

The Bills were extremely thin on defense last week and the Dolphins took advantage by handing them their first loss of the season. This is another tough spot for the Bills against a Ravens team that has proven to be a tough test in recent years. Will Lamar Jackson get loose and be a difference maker in this game? Pick: Bills, 24-20.

Line: Bills -3

ML: Bills

Spread: Bills

Chicago Bears (2-1) @ New York Giants (2-1)

Honestly, I could care less about this game as these are the two weakest teams in the NFL with a 2-1 record. Justin Fields has been completely inept from the pocket so far and Daniel Jones seems like a sitting duck for opposing defenses in that backfield. I'll lean on the home side here and trust that Saquon Barkley has a big day. Pick: Giants, 19-13.

Line: Giants -3

ML: Giants

Spread: Giants

Cleveland Browns (2-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

It looks like Cordarrelle Patterson will give it a go this week, however, I think the Falcons are limited offensively and the Browns should be able to control this game with their two-headed monster in the backfield. Pick: Browns, 24-17.

Line: Browns -1

ML: Browns

Spread: Browns

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)

The Jaguars surprised people last week by blowing out the Chargers on the road and is it possible Doug Pederson has got Trevor Lawrence playing at his potential? I think this should be a fun game in a Pederson revenge spot and the Jags should hang here again on the road. Pick: Eagles, 28-23.

Line: Eagles -6.5

ML: Eagles

Spread: Jaguars

Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) @ Houston Texans (0-2-1)

I feel like we're going to be looking at a detailed rundown of the Chargers' injury report all season long and this week is no different. Keenan Allen won't suit up again, which leaves a banged up Justin Herbert without one of his best receivers, plus Joey Bosa is now sidelined with a groin injury. Pick: Chargers, 20-17.

Line: Chargers -6

ML: Chargers

Spread: Texans

New York Jets (1-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)

Zach Wilson will make his season debut for the Jets in this one, which gives them a more mobile option in the pocket than Joe Flacco. The only problem for me is that even without T.J. Watt, this Steelers defense is still tough and will Wilson be up for the task? Pick: Steelers, 20-16.

Line: Steelers -3.5

ML: Steelers

Spread: Steelers

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) @ Detroit Lions (1-2)

The Lions are riddled with injuries offensively for this game as both D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown sitting out. I'm not in love with the Seahawks here as a West Coast team travelling across the country for an earlier 1 PM start, but with the injury concerns I feel this is going to come down to a late field goal. Pick: Lions, 23-20.

Line: Lions -3.5

ML: Lions

Spread: Seahawks

Tennessee Titans (1-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1)

The Colts might have saved their season with a big win over the Chiefs last week. It seemed like they were still disorganized in certain offensive situations however and desperately need to clean that up if they want to get on a run here. This is a tough divisional game and Mike Vrabel's team showed some life last week avoiding an 0-3 start. Pick: Colts, 20-17.

Line: Colts -3.5

ML: Colts

Spread: Titans

Washington Commanders (1-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

The Cowboys' defense stepped up in a big way on Monday night to help secure a divisional win over the Giants. Now, they feast their eyes on Carson Wentz, who has been sacked more than any QB in the NFL so far this season. This is a winnable game for the Cowboys who should be able to ride their defense to another victory. Pick: Cowboys, 24-20.

Line: Cowboys -3

ML: Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) @ Carolina Panthers (1-2)

This is a bit of a funny line as the Panthers beat the Saints at home last week, but really, Baker Mayfield hasn't looked good this year. On top of that, Christian McCaffrey seems like he will suit up with a thigh injury that could affect his usage. I like Kyler Murray and the Cards with some late game heroics here. Pick: Cardinals, 23-16.

Line: Panthers -1

ML: Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals

Denver Broncos (2-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders (0-3)

It's been a nightmare start to the season for the Raiders, now 0-3, and they badly need a win this week. The good news is that the Broncos have stumbled their way to a 2-1 record with the offense looking completely out of sync. The bad news, it's absolutely now or never for Josh McDaniels and his crew. Pick: Raiders, 23-20.

Line: Raiders -2.5

ML: Raiders

Spread: Raiders

New England Patriots (1-2) @ Green Bay Packers (2-1)

Mac Jones left the field last week in agony and will be out with a high ankle sprain this week, which leaves Brian Hoyer running the offense. This is still a big spread even with the veteran Hoyer under center and the Pats' defense has been solid this year. Pick: Packers, 26-17.

Line: Packers -10

ML: Packers

Spread: Patriots

Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

There was concern that this game wouldn't take place in Tampa based on hurricane Ian wreaking havoc this week. The Bucs didn't have Mike Evans or Chris Godwin last week, but their defense shutout the Packers in the second half and Tom Brady nearly forced overtime. Godwin and Julio Jones look like they will play and test themselves in pre-game warmups, so Brady could get an upgrade offensively. Pick: Buccaneers, 26-23.

Line: Buccaneers -1

ML: Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers

Los Angeles Rams (2-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

I really thought Kyle Shanahan would create more confusion last week against the Broncos defense, but it was just a sloppy game all around. I think Jimmy Garoppolo still puts them in a better position to win than Trey Lance and he can hang with the Rams and Matthew Stafford. This has the makings of a defensive battle once again in primetime and I'll lean with the home team here. Pick: 49ers, 20-17.

Line: 49ers -1

ML: 49ers

Spread: 49ers

Results

Week 3

ML: 9-7

ATS: 9-6-1

Overall

ML: 28-20

ATS: 28-19-1