Week 4 NFL Picks

It's been a great first few weeks in the NFL and heading into Week 4 there are some key matchups to keep an eye on. The Bills, Chargers, Colts and 49ers are all undefeated, but the biggest matchup of the week pits two 3-0 teams against one another in the Eagles and Bucs. The Colts are the biggest surprise out of that undefeated bunch as Daniel Jones has found a rebirth in Indianapolis. Let's dive into this week's game picks.

**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Sept. 25)

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-1)

The Seahawks are off to a better start than expected and Sam Darnold has played some decent football out of the gate. Their biggest win was on the road against the Steelers and Mike Mcdonald's defense should prove to be a tough test for Kyler Murray, who I'm still struggling to see consistency from as a signal-caller. Pick: Seahawks, 23-17.

Line: Seahawks -1

ML: Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

These two teams will travel to Dublin, Ireland for this matchup and the focus will be around the Steelers' defense. They played much more sound last week, holding the Pats to just 14 points, but they will need another tough effort in this game to give Aaron Rodgers an opportunity to get the offense in a rhythm. Pick: Steelers, 24-20.

Line: Vikings -2.5

ML: Steelers

Spread: Steelers

Washington Commanders (2-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

Jayden Daniels sat out last week's game and Marcus Mariota stepped in to play solid in relief. Although Daniels returned to practice this week, it was in a limited capacity, and his status will be up in the air for this game. You have to think Raheem Morris' group plays with an edge this week after being shutout by the Panthers. Pick: Falcons, 23-21.

Line: Commanders -1

ML: Falcons

Spread: Falcons

New Orleans Saints (0-3) @ Buffalo Bills (3-0)

This is the most lopsided spread of the week, and rightfully so as both of these teams are headed in different directions. If the Bills stick to the run game, this game should be out of reach early in the second half. Pick: Bills, 33-13.

Line: Bills -15.5

ML: Bills

Spread: Bills

Cleveland Browns (1-2) @ Detroit Lions (2-1)

The Browns came from behind and stole a win over the Packers last week and will be looking to stun another NFC North team again in Week 4. I don't see the Lions letting them stick around in this game though, and the two-headed rushing monster of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should put them over the top. Pick: Lions, 31-16.

Line: Lions -10

ML: Lions

Spread: Lions

Tennessee Titans (0-3) @ Houston Texans (0-3)

When this game was circled on the calendar, I'm not sure many people had both of these teams (especially the Texans) to be winless. Here we are though and C.J. Stroud has been awful through the first three weeks when his team has needed him the most. Pick: Texans, 20-16.

Line: Texans -7

ML: Texans

Spread: Titans

Carolina Panthers (1-2) @ New England Patriots (1-2)

Mike Vrabel is looking to put his stamp on this Patriots team and this will be a tough matchup against a Panthers team coming off a blowout win last week. The key for the Pats is to really establish this run game after we saw another fumble from Rhamondre Stevenson last week, setting the stage for rookie TreVeyon Henderson to take a leap. Pick: Patriots, 24-17.

Line: Patriots -5.5

ML: Patriots

Spread: Panthers

Los Angeles Chargers (3-0) @ New York Giants (0-3)

The Russell Wilson experiment seems to be over...for now. Jaxson Dart is set to make his first career start against a Chargers team that is firing on all cylinders to open the year. This might be as complete a start as we've seen from the Chargers since the Ladainian Tomlinson days and I would expect them to control the game on the ground here. Pick: Chargers, 26-15.

Line: Chargers -6.5

ML: Chargers

Spread: Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0)

This is a great matchup featuring two NFC teams that have their eyes on playing deep into January. Historically, the Eagles have struggled playing on the road in Tampa, but I'm a bit cautious about some of the injuries on the Bucs' offensive line and we won't see Mike Evans playing this week. Pick: Eagles, 26-19.

Line: Eagles -3.5

ML: Eagles

Spread: Eagles

Indianapolis Colts (3-0) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-1)

The Colts have been the biggest surprise out of the gate, especially Daniel Jones. It appears to be a bit of a renaissance tour for Jones who was cast away by the Giants and has now found new life with the Colts. This is a tough Rams team though, and they let that game slip through their grasp against the Eagles last week -- Sean McVay will have his team ready. Pick: Rams, 27-20.

Line: Rams -3.5

ML: Rams

Spread: Rams

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-0)

The Niners have survived the last two weeks without Brock Purdy under center and he will return for this game to give the offense a boost. We're still seeing some inconsistencies from Trevor Lawrence in this Liam Coen offense and I expect that to continue against a veteran defense. Pick: 49ers, 23-16.

Line: 49ers -3

ML: 49ers

Spread: 49ers

Baltimore Ravens (1-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)

This is a huge game in the AFC playoff race and it's shocking that both of these teams have two losses this early in the season. I think the Chiefs need this win more than the Ravens, simply from the standpoint that the Chargers are off to a hot start and all three of their wins have come against AFC West opponents. Pick: Chiefs, 24-21.

Line: Ravens -2.5

ML: Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs

Chicago Bears (1-2) @ Las Vegas Raiders (1-2)

Caleb Williams had a career-best four passing touchdowns last week in a win over the Cowboys and will now look to build off that momentum against a Raiders team that actually has a pass rush. Maxx Crosby will be hot in pursuit of Williams, looking to be as disruptive as possible and I like the Raiders to get back in the win column here. Pick: Raiders, 23-20.

Line: Raiders -1

ML: Raiders

Spread: Raiders

Green Bay Packers (2-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-2)

This game will have plenty of emotions leading up to it as Micah Parsons makes his return to Dallas for the first time since the trade to Green Bay. Jerry Jones is already stirring the pot, saying there will be no tribute to the former pass rusher and you have to think Parsons will have plenty to prove when he takes the field opposite Dak Prescott on Sunday night. Pick: Packers, 30-23.

Line: Packers -6.5

ML: Packers

Spread: Packers

New York Jets (0-3) @ Miami Dolphins (0-3)

The Jets got some good news this week as Justin Fields has cleared concussion protocol and will be available for this game. His mobility will be a boost for the offense as they look to end the winless drought to start the year. On the other side, the Dolphins have been out of sync offensively and this could finally be a get right spot for them. Pick: Jets, 24-23.

Line: Dolphins -3

ML: Jets

Spread: Jets

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) @ Denver Broncos (1-2)

The Bengals just simply aren't the same team without Joe Burrow leading the way and that was evident last week as they were embarrassed by the Vikings. The Broncos desperately need a win to keep pace in their division and I think this defense is out to prove something this week. Pick: Broncos, 23-16.

Line: Broncos -7.5

ML: Broncos

Spread: Bengals

Results

Week 3

ML: 11-5

ATS: 8-8

Overall

ML: 31-17

ATS: 20-28