Week 4 NFL Picks

All betting lines from bet365.com (Updated Sept. 30)

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) @ Cleveland Browns (2-1)

First place in the AFC North will be on the line to kick the week off and surprisingly, the Browns are in that conversation. Neither team has been exceptional on offense to start the year, and this game may come down to an impactful turnover. Pick: Steelers, 20-17.

Line: Steelers -2.5

ML: Steelers

Spread: Steelers

Indianapolis Colts (1-2) vs Washington Commanders (1-2)

The Colts and Commanders do battle in London, and it's anyone's guess if Jayden Daniels will actually return to lineup with that injured elbow. Regardless, the Colts should be able to lean on their ground game and keep Dan Quinn's defense off balance. Pick: Colts, 24-16.

Line: Colts -3.5

ML: Colts

Spread: Colts

New England Patriots (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (3-0)

The Pats just can't seem to find their footing and much of that is due to the poor play of Drake Maye (1:6 TD:INT ratio). We've seen Mike Vrabel coach some pedestrian teams, but I'm not sure his effort will change Maye's performance. Look for the Bills to continue their dominance offensively. Pick: Bills, 26-17.

Line: Bills -6.5

ML: Bills

Spread: Bills

Tennessee Titans (0-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

It's early, but Cam Ward has been terrible to start the season and I don't think this is the next step the Titans were hoping for from their young quarterback. It's another tough matchup on deck and the Ravens will be looking to keep pace in the AFC North with a win. Pick: Ravens, 28-15.

Line: Ravens -11.5

ML: Ravens

Spread: Ravens

New York Jets (1-2) @ Chicago Bears (2-1)

The Bears dominated the Eagles in primetime last week and Case Keenum was in complete control of the offense. I think the strong play continues as the Jets will be without several starters, most notably Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell. Pick: Bears, 23-16.

Line: Bears -3.5

ML: Bears

Spread: Bears

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)

This is a big spot for the AFC landscape and I think the Bengals need a win to keep pace with the AFC North. Joe Burrow was careless with the ball late in the game last week and I trust that he bounces back at home. Pick: Bengals, 27-24.

Line: Bengals -2.5

ML: Bengals

Spread: Bengals

Dallas Cowboys (1-2) @ Houston Texans (0-3)

The Texans have been in this 0-3 spot before and they definitely have the defense to get them out of it. The return of Nico Collins to the lineup certainly gives them a boost and with the Cowboys' offensive pedigree, this has the makings for a potential shootout. Pick: Texans, 28-24.

Line: Texans -3

ML: Texans

Spread: Texans

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) @ New York Giants (2-1)

The Giants offense under Jameis Winston wasn't inspiring last week, but they squeaked out a win. Most people will be on the Cardinals in this game, but I'm going to lean towards John Harbaugh in this spot and coaching this team up for a win. Pick: Giants, 24-23.

Line: Cardinals -2.5

ML: Giants

Spread: Giants

Los Angeles Rams (1-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)

The Eagles had no juice in last week's game and the offense couldn't find its feet, so I'm anticipating DeVonta Smith's absence won't help. The Rams fell victim to some poor officiating last week, but that's behind them and Puka Nacua will give their offense a different look. Pick: Rams, 24-17.

Line: Rams -3

ML: Rams

Spread: Rams

Green Bay Packers (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)

The Bucs might be spiraling here and they've lost Baker Mayfield for the foreseeable future, which raises some bigger questions about this offense. The Packers haven't been much more consistent and now is the time to find their footing with the extended break. Pick: Packers, 24-16.

Line: Packers -3.5

ML: Packers

Spread: Packers

Miami Dolphins (0-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-0)

Even though Kyler Murray hasn't looked the part of a capable starting quarterback out of the gate, I just can't see the Dolphins finding a way to their first win on the road in front of one of the tougher crowds in the NFL. Pick: Vikings, 27-14.

Line: Vikings -10.5

ML: Vikings

Spread: Vikings

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) @ Las Vegas Raiders (3-0)

If you were to tell me the Chiefs and Raiders first meeting of the season would have the AFC West's top spot hanging in the balance, I would have said that was a pipe dream. Patrick Mahomes is 37-8 against the division in his career (13-2 versus the Raiders). Pick: Chiefs, 27-20.

Line: Chiefs -4.5

ML: Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs

Denver Broncos (2-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-0)

The slow starts for the Broncos will catch up to them at some point this season and another one this week may be too much to overcome considering how well the 49ers have gelled offensively. Pick: 49ers, 27-20.

Line: 49ers -2.5

ML: 49ers

Spread: 49ers

Los Angeles Chargers (0-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-1)

The Chargers might be the biggest surprise to open the year and are staring down the barrel of an 0-4 start in Seattle. The Seahawks were stunned last week and will be leaning on the 12th-man for a bounce back here. Pick: Seahawks, 26-17.

Line: Seahawks -7

ML: Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks

Detroit Lions (2-1) @ Carolina Panthers (1-2)

This should be an entertaining Sunday night spot and the outcome may come down to the Lions secondary minimizing the damage in the passing game. Look for the Lions to be able to move the ball pretty steadily and out pace the Panthers. Pick: Lions, 30-27.

Line: Lions -3.5

ML: Lions

Spread: Panthers

Atlanta Falcons (1-2) @ New Orleans Saints (1-2)

An NFC South clash on Monday night and I like this Falcons team under Kevin Stefanski to pick up another win this week. Michael Penix Jr. isn't flashy, but I think he's the best option for this Falcons offense and I liked how poised he was last week following the interception on the first drive. Pick: Falcons, 26-23.

Line: Saints -2.5

ML: Falcons

Spread: Falcons

Results

Week 3

ML: 9-7 (56.3%)

ATS: 8-8 (50.0%)

Overall

ML: 30-18 (62.5%)

ATS: 25-23 (52.1%)