Week 5 NFL Picks

All betting lines from bet365.com (Updated Oct. 8)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

The Cowboys are dangerously offensively, averaging 30.5 PPG, and that should be the difference in this game. If the Cowboys can put some pressure on rookie Jalon Daniels, this game should never be close. Pick: Cowboys, 33-20.

Line: Cowboys -9.5

ML: Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)

The Eagles are without two of their offensive center pieces as Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith will sit this game out. Despite that, I still like Jalen Hurts to elevate his game enough to keep this as a one score game. Pick: Jaguars, 23-16.

Line: Jaguars -7.5

ML: Jaguars

Spread: Eagles

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) @ Miami Dolphins (0-4)

The Bengals' offense could look a little sparse for this game as Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins worked on the side during Friday's practice and will be game-time decisions. The Dolphins have been pedestrian on both sides of the ball to start the year, can the Bengals get a win on the back of their defense? Pick: Bengals, 23-13.

Line: Bengals -6.5

ML: Bengals

Spread: Bengals

Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) @ New England Patriots (2-2)

It looked a bit gloomy in New England to start the season, but after a big divisional win over the Bills last week there seems to be new life for Mike Vrabel's team. If Drake Maye can clean up the mental errors in the pocket, this team can get back to the caliber that got them to the Super Bowl in February. Pick: Patriots, 26-19.

Line: Patriots -3.5

ML: Patriots

Spread: Patriots

Minnesota Vikings (4-0) @ New Orleans Saints (1-3)

The Vikings are undefeated, but I'm still not confident in them. Their success to this point in the season can be attributed to Brian Flores' defense and I think the Saints come away with an upset at home this week. Pick: Saints, 19-16.

Line: Vikings -2.5

ML: Saints

Spread: Saints

Cleveland Browns (3-1) @ New York Jets (1-3)

Rain is expected throughout the entire game, which bodes well for Todd Monken's ground game attack. I can feel a Quinshon Judkins breakout on the horizon as the Browns strengthen their lead in the AFC North. Pick: Browns, 21-16.

Line: Jets -2.5

ML: Browns

Spread: Browns

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)

Rain is the theme this week, especially on the East Coast, and this game is expected to be a messy one. We know the Colts lean on Jonathan Taylor in their offense and this will be a big test for this Steelers defensive front to see if they can slow him down. Pick: Steelers, 20-17.

Line: Steelers -2.5

ML: Steelers

Spread: Steelers

Houston Texans (0-4) @ Tennessee Titans (0-4)

I'm not sure anyone had this game circled on the schedule as a battle of two winless teams, but somebody is going to get their first win of the season this week. The Texans are in a surprising 0-4 spot and likely don't deserve to be, so I'll lean on them here. Pick: Texans, 23-15.

Line: Texans -7.5

ML: Texans

Spread: Texans

New York Giants (3-1) @ Washington Commanders (1-3)

The Giants have been getting by with Jameis Winston under center and the elements could play a factor this week. With a greater emphasis on the ground game, the Commanders will get Jayden Daniels back in a pivotal NFC East matchup. Pick: Commanders, 23-16.

Line: Commanders -4.5

ML: Commanders

Spread: Commanders

Chicago Bears (3-1) @ Green Bay Packers (2-2)

The Bears will be playing with heavy hearts this week after the passing of legendary player and coach, Mike Ditka. Of course, they clash with arguably their biggest rival and will look to put some distance in the division from the Packers. Pick: Packers, 24-21.

Line: Bears -1.5

ML: Packers

Spread: Packers

Denver Broncos (2-2) @ Los Angeles Chargers (0-4)

It's been ugly for the Chargers so far this year and without Ladd McConkey in the lineup, someone else in the wideout group will need to emerge as Justin Herbert's go-to target. Sean Payton announced he will call the plays this week and perhaps that will give Bo Nix the boost he's been looking for? Pick: Broncos, 20-17.

Line: Broncos -3.5

ML: Broncos

Spread: Chargers

Detroit Lions (2-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-3)

The Lions simply can't figure out their secondary and will need to do so quickly if they want to keep pace in the NFC North. This is a big get right spot for them and I think Dan Campbell's team comes away with a much needed win. Pick: Lions, 29-22.

Line: Lions -5.5

ML: Lions

Spread: Lions

San Francisco 49ers (4-0) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

Perhaps the game of the week with the NFC West lead up for grabs. Brock Purdy has been playing at an MVP level and will need to continue that success against a tough Seahawks defense. Pick: Seahawks, 23-17.

Line: Seahawks -3

ML: Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-2)

The Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson in this game, but the bigger story line might be whether or not they can slow down Bijan Robinson. After starting the year with two losses, Kevin Stefanski has the Falcons back on track and I think this team comes away with their third primetime win of the year. Pick: Falcons, 24-17.

Line: Falcons -3

ML: Falcons

Spread: Falcons

Buffalo Bills (3-1) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-2)

The Rams had a gutsy comeback win over the Eagles last week after Sean McVay rallied the troops on the sideline. I think they build on that momentum to hand the Bills their second loss in a row. Pick: Rams, 27-24.

Line: Rams -3.5

ML: Rams

Spread: Bills

Results

Week 4

ML: 11-5 (68.8%)

ATS: 7-8-1 (46.9%)

Overall

ML: 41-23 (64.1%)

ATS: 32-31-1 (50.8%)