Week 1 NFL Picks

Another turn around the sun and the NFL season is back! The schedule is loaded for Week 1 with NFC East rivals in Dallas and Philadelphia kicking things off. There's always plenty of chatter about which offseason move -- new head coach or signing -- will have the biggest impact throughout the season and I think we'll see that immediately on Thursday night. Without Micah Parsons on the defensive side of the ball, how will the Cowboys be able to pressure Jalen Hurts? Let's find out and dive into this week's game picks.

**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Sept. 4)

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

It was mentioned off the top that the Cowboys will take the field on Thursday night without their star pass rusher Micah Parsons after Jerry Jones made a shocking trade with the Packers last week. I think this game will set the landscape for the whole season in Dallas and if Jalen Hurts has all day in the pocket, then the vultures will start circling the front office. I think it will be much of the same from a year ago, with the Cowboys struggling to slow down the run and they'll be overmatched by this backfield. Pick: Eagles, 27-23.

Line: Eagles -8

ML: Eagles

Spread: Cowboys

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers

This is a tough spot with the game being played at a neutral site in Brazil. Two AFC West rivals, one is the golden standard of the NFL, the other is an upbeat team led by a newer regime. The thing to watch in this game is how well Chargers' rookie Omarion Hampton acclimates to the game flow early on. It's an experienced Chiefs' front seven and we know traditionally Jim Harbaugh likes to lean on the run with his offense. Pick: Chiefs, 27-20.

Line: Chiefs -3

ML: Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons

I think the apron strings were tied to Bijan Robinson a little too tightly last season and we're now going to see things open up a bit more in his favor offensively. With that being said, Todd Bowles's complex zone defense has been tough for young quarterbacks to solve before and I wonder how much that plays a factor on Michael Penix Jr. this week? Pick: Falcons, 26-23.

Line: Buccaneers -2

ML: Falcons

Spread: Falcons

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Oh man, I thought long and hard about taking the Browns as an upset pick here considering the consistent slow starts we've seen from the Bengals in recent years. However, I think there are questions up and down the lineup and ultimately they will be contending for that top pick in the draft next season. Regardless of the Bengals' defensive woes, I can't see this Browns team slowing down the Bengals' offense. Pick: Bengals, 31-27.

Line: Bengals -5

ML: Bengals

Spread: Browns

Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts

Many were shocked to see Daniel Jones named as the starter for the Colts ahead of Anthony Richardson and I was one of them. I think they need to really determine what they have with Richardson and potentially course correct this franchise's plans for next season and beyond. Regardless, there's no doubt the Dolphins are a different team when Tua Tagovailoa is on the field and for now, he's healthy. Give me the Fish on the road and under a roof to start the season. Pick: Dolphins, 27-20.

Line: Colts -1

ML: Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins

Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

It's tough to know what we're getting from Liam Coen as the head coach of this Jags team and time will sort that out, but for now, we know he's one of the bright young offensive minds in the league. That can only be a recipe for success for Trevor Lawrence and Co., so I'm expecting this team to be able to move the ball steadily this season. Don't overlook this Panthers squad as they will be in some tight games in 2025, but I like the boys at home in Duval this week. Pick: Jaguars, 23-20.

Line: Jaguars -3.5

ML: Jaguars

Spread: Panthers

Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots

It's nice to see Pete Carroll back on an NFL sideline as the Raiders have made some personnel changes from the top down, which also include Tom Brady's ownership stake. Carroll has a great rapport with Geno Smith from their time in Seattle together and I think this Raiders team will play with a lot more grit this year. Despite all of this, I think Mike Vrabel brings a hardworking mentality on the other sideline that the Pats missed last season. Pick: 20-17.

Line: Patriots -2.5

ML: Patriots

Spread: Patriots

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints

This could easily be an upset spot for the week, but it's tough to invest much into this Saints team entering the year. I don't like that Spencer Rattler is the starter as he struggled mightily in the second half of last season. I'm also not big on the Cardinals like some others are this year, and that likely has to do with Kyler Murray's inconsistencies. This is a cupcake spot for him and the offense, so I do expect some points. Pick: Cardinals, 24-16.

Line: Cardinals -6.5

ML: Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets

I'm not huge on either of these teams this year. I don't know how much of an upgrade the Steelers are getting with Aaron Rodgers and they'll be leaning on their defense to carry them. That being said, one of the quarterbacks he's replacing will now be starting for the Jets and that's Justin Fields. We've seen his struggles throwing the ball in training camp and the preseason and this team will be a run-first team this year. Pick: Steelers, 20-13.

Line: Steelers -2.5

ML: Steelers

Spread: Steelers

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders

The Commanders have been pegged as a team that could dethrone the Eagles in the NFC East this season. The biggest question will be if Jayden Daniels will avoid a sophomore slump or not? I like what they're building in Washington and even though the Giants have a stout defense, they're still a ways away from contending in this division. Pick: Commanders, 24-17.

Line: Commanders -6

ML: Commanders

Spread: Commanders

Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos

This is one of the biggest spreads on the card this week and that's likely due in large part to Cam Ward making his first NFL start on the road in Mile High. There are a lot of similarities in this Broncos offense to the offense that Sean Payton had with the Saints. However, can Bo Nix build on a playoff appearance in his rookie season? After all, he was winless against playoff teams (the Chiefs sat their starters in Week 18) and it will be a grind in the AFC West. Pick: Broncos, 24-14.

Line: Broncos -8.5

ML: Broncos

Spread: Broncos

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Much of the story in this division will be about the Niners' health to start the season. While Christian McCaffrey is the focal point, they went out and traded for Brian Robinson Jr. after losing much of their depth to injury before the season even started. I think CMC will be a difference maker like he was a couple of seasons ago and the Seahawks will need to contain him to stand pat at home. Pick: Seahawks, 23-20.

Line: 49ers -2.5

ML: Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

The Packers made headlines trading for Micah Parsons last week and many are wondering if that will be the type of move that puts them in the Super Bowl conversation. While I think the Packers have a good shot to win the division this season, these Lions will be ready to play and despite their tough schedule, I'm not ready to count them out. Pick: Lions, 26-24.

Line: Packers -2.5

ML: Lions

Spread: Lions

Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Rams

There's been plenty of speculation around Matthew Stafford's back ailment and how it will affect him throughout the duration of the season. He didn't participate in the preseason or much of training camp and it was revealed he would take an epidural to help get him on the field. I think it will be up and down all year for this Rams team, but in this game the Texans' run offense has me concerned and that will put too much pressure on C.J. Stroud. Pick: Rams, 24-17.

Line: Rams -3

ML: Rams

Spread: Rams

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills

This could be a preview of the AFC Championship game later in the season, but out of the gate there are injury concerns on the defensive side of the ball for the Bills. That could play a factor in being able to slow down Lamar Jackson, who really took a step forward as a passer last season. It's a home opener in Buffalo, and I'm not going to fade Josh Allen here. Pick: Bills, 27-24.

Line: Ravens -1

ML: Bills

Spread: Bills

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

I'm skeptical of this line on Monday night. You have a second-year QB in J.J. McCarthy making his debut as a starter on the road at Soldier Field against a tough Bears defense. There could be some growing pains with Caleb Williams and learning Ben Johnson's new offense, but I like the home team in this spot here. Pick: Bears, 20-17.

Line: Vikings -1.5

ML: Bears

Spread: Bears