Week 13 NFL Picks

All betting lines from bet365.com (Updated Nov. 30)

Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) @ Detroit Lions (7-4)

This is a huge divisional showdown and I think the nod goes to the Lions here, who have an opportunity to walk out this week with the NFC North lead (if the Bears lose to the Eagles). The gameplan for the Lions is simple, pound the rock and keep the Packers' defense in a rotation that limits Micah Parson's time on the field. Pick: Lions, 26-23.

Line: Lions -2.5

ML: Lions

Spread: Lions

Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1)

I've got a soft spot for the Cowboys and they seem to be playing at a new level, especially after the addition of Quinnen Williams up front. However, as much as the win over the Eagles was impressive, let's not forget the two opponents prior to that were the Cardinals and Raiders, a stretch they went 1-1. Pick: Chiefs, 27-23.

Line: Chiefs -3

ML: Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs

Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-5)

There's a lot of hype for this game because of the return of Joe Burrow, but I think it's a bit foolish of the Bengals to trot out their star player considering a 3-8 record and the chances of winning the division being a long shot. But, here we are and maybe the move energizes the team and they come away with a big road win. Pick: Ravens, 24-20.

Line: Ravens -6.5

ML: Ravens

Spread: Bengals

Chicago Bears (8-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)

I wouldn't have pegged the Bears to be in a position to lead the NFC North at this point of the season, but with a win over the Eagles they will be first place. The Eagles need to snap out of whatever offensive hole they've been in the last few weeks and feature Saquon Barkley more. Pick: Eagles, 21-17.

Line: Eagles -7

ML: Eagles

Spread: Bears

Los Angeles Rams (9-2) @ Carolina Panthers (6-6)

The Panthers are surprisingly in the NFC South conversation as a win this week could move them ahead of the Bucs. Lucky for them, they host the red hot Rams, who don't seem to be showing any signs of slowing down and Matthew Stafford seems to have the inside track on the MVP honors. Pick: Rams, 28-20.

Line: Rams -10.5

ML: Rams

Spread: Panthers

San Francisco 49ers (8-4) @ Cleveland Browns (3-8)

The Browns got some new life behind the play of rookie Shedeur Sanders last week and now comes a tough defensive test against the Niners. The last time these two teams played in Cleveland, it was the Browns that came away with a late field goal win and we'll see if history repeats itself. Pick: 49ers, 24-16.

Line: 49ers -5

ML: 49ers

Spread: 49ers

Houston Texans (6-5) @ Indianapolis Colts (8-3)

Some interesting news broke this week about Daniel Jones playing through a broken bone in his leg the last couple of weeks. I'm not sure how that will play a factor moving forward, but he intends to play through it. It won't be an easy task this week at home to a tough Texans' defensive pass rush that could wreak havoc. Pick: Colts, 24-20.

Line: Colts -3

ML: Colts

Spread: Colts

New Orleans Saints (2-9) @ Miami Dolphins (4-7)

Both of these teams don't have much to play for this late in the season and I'll give the edge to the Dolphins here because they should be able to open some lanes for De'Von Achane and move the ball with relative ease. Pick: Dolphins, 27-20.

Line: Dolphins -5

ML: Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins

Atlanta Falcons (4-7) @ New York Jets (2-9)

The Jets will roll with veteran Tyrod Taylor under center this week in what would be considered a game manager role. Can Kirk Cousins build off a sharp performance last week and give the Falcons a bit of momentum? Pick: Falcons, 23-16.

Line: Falcons -3

ML: Falcons

Spread: Falcons

Arizona Cardinals (3-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)

The Bucs are pretty banged up offensively, but they will welcome back Bucky Irving to the lineup and it appears that Baker Mayfield is going to gut it out with a sprained non-throwing shoulder. Pick: Buccaneers, 21-17.

Line: Buccaneers -3.5

ML: Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4) @ Tennessee Titans (1-10)

This is a game the Jags absolutely need to stay ahead in the AFC wildcard race. We've seen some better play out of Titans rookie Cam Ward in recent weeks, but does he have a breakthrough game to play spoiler? Pick: Jaguars, 26-19.

Line: Jaguars -5.5

ML: Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars

Minnesota Vikings (4-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-3)

The Seahawks have been impressive offensively this season and you can see Sam Darnold's confidence continuing to grow each week. I like them to rout the Vikings here and keep pace in the NFC playoff picture. Pick: Seahawks, 33-17.

Line: Seahawks -12

ML: Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks

Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) @ Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)

The Chargers have a soft matchup here coming out of their bye week and this is an important game with some tough matchups still ahead on the schedule. I like them to roll here and keep a bit of pressure on the Broncos in that AFC West. Pick: Chargers, 28-16.

Line: Chargers -10

ML: Chargers

Spread: Chargers

Buffalo Bills (7-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

It looks like Aaron Rodgers will return for the Steelers and play through the broken bone in his non-throwing wrist. I still like the Bills here though as it looks like the division is slipping through Mike Tomlin's grasp. Pick: Bills, 23-16.

Line: Bills -3

ML: Bills

Spread: Bills

Denver Broncos (9-2) @ Washington Commanders (3-8)

I don't expect much of a fight from the Commanders in this game, trotting Marcus Mariota out there again for the start. It's the right thing to do and with the division out of reach, the Commanders can focus on Jayden Daniels resting and preparing himself for next season. Pick: Broncos, 24-15.

Line: Broncos -6.5

ML: Broncos

Spread: Broncos

New York Giants (2-10) @ New England Patriots (10-2)

With Jaxson Dart returning to the Giants lineup, that could light a spark for this team. However, the Pats look like a juggernaut, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Pick: Patriots, 26-16.

Line: Patriots -7

ML: Patriots

Spread: Patriots

Results

Week 12

ML: 12-2

ATS: 8-5-1

Overall

ML: 121-57 (68.0%)

ATS: 91-85-2 (51.1%)