Week 5 NFL Picks

Hard to believe we're already in Week 5 and early on there are teams starting to create some separation in their respective divisions. Thursday night will kick us off with a clash of NFC West rivals, while a pair of AFC East rivals renew acquaintances on Sunday night. Let's dive into this week's game picks.

**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Oct. 4)

San Francisco 49ers (3-1) @ Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

The injuries for this Niners team continue to pile up and after a return last week, Brock Purdy suffered a setback with his toe injury which will force him to miss this game. The Rams have started slow in games this season, but I think they control this game right from the opening kickoff. Pick: Rams, 27-17.

Line: Rams -8.5

ML: Rams

Spread: Rams

Minnesota Vikings (2-2) @ Cleveland Browns (1-3)

The Vikings came up short in Dublin last week and will now take a short flight to London as they wait for the Browns. Dillon Gabriel will make his first career start and it's a peculiar spot against a Vikings defense that should play with an edge this week. Pick: Vikings, 21-14.

Line: Vikings -3.5

ML: Vikings

Spread: Vikings

Houston Texans (1-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-3)

This is a tough game to call. While the Texans ran away with it last week to get their first win of the season, the shutout wasn't reflective of how their team moved the ball offensively. The offensive line is struggling and although the Ravens will need to lean on Cooper Rush for the start, I think their defense steps up in a must-win spot. Pick: Ravens, 19-16.

Line: Texans -1.5

ML: Ravens

Spread: Ravens

Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ Carolina Panthers (1-3)

There have been some major injuries to start the year and the Dolphins are now feeling that after losing Tyreek Hill for the season. While his speed is dynamic, the Dolphins were out of sync offensively and this could be an opportunity for Jaylen Waddle to take the reins. Pick: Panthers, 24-21.

Line: Dolphins -1

ML: Panthers

Spread: Panthers

Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-1)

The Raiders lost a heartbreaker last week after Daniel Carlson's potential game-winning field goal was blocked by the Bears. Now, they will try to gut out a tough road win without their best offensive player, Brock Bowers. I think the Colts bounce back this week and Jonathan Taylor will play a large part in that. Pick: Colts, 26-17.

Line: Colts -7

ML: Colts

Spread: Colts

New York Giants (1-3) @ New Orleans Saints (0-4)

The Giants stunned the Chargers last week in Jaxson Dart's debut, but this game feels like one of a few the Saints could win this week. The Saints hung around with the Bills last week and they'll need to get Alvin Kamara in open space to exploit a tough Giants' front seven. Pick: Saints, 20-17.

Line: Saints -2

ML: Saints

Spread: Saints

Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1) @ New York Jets (0-4)

The Cowboys will be without CeeDee Lamb for a second straight game, but their biggest challenge might be four starters missing from their offensive line. Dak Prescott has been playing at a high level and he will need to replicate getting the ball out quickly like he did last week. Pick: Cowboys, 26-24.

Line: Cowboys -1.5

ML: Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys

Denver Broncos (2-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-0)

The Eagles have been heavily scrutinized for their struggles in the passing game -- twice we've seen them finish a half without a passing yard -- and despite this, they're 4-0. The Eagles have a recipe that works and should stick to the ground game. Pick: Eagles, 27-20.

Line: Eagles -4

ML: Eagles

Spread: Eagles

Tennessee Titans (0-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

The Titans have been the worst team in the NFL through four weeks and you can see the frustration boiling over for rookie Cam Ward. The Cardinals come off a tough Thursday night loss against the Seahawks and will look to get back in the NFC West race. Pick: Cardinals, 23-14.

Line: Cardinals -7.5

ML: Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

The Bucs are another team riddled by the injury bug, yet Baker Mayfield continues to keep this team in games and grind out wins. It's that type of fearless mentality that the rest of his teammates rally behind and can make them a dangerous team on the road in this game. Pick: Seahawks, 24-20.

Line: Seahawks -3.5

ML: Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks

Detroit Lions (3-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)

Looking at the schedule to start the year, this game would have been pegged as one of the best matchups of the year. But, the season is quickly spiraling out of control for the Bengals since Joe Burrow's injury and they seem vulnerable against a Lions team hungry for another win. Pick: Lions, 31-17.

Line: Lions -10.5

ML: Lions

Spread: Lions

Washington Commanders (2-2) @ Los Angeles Chargers (3-1)

This is an intriguing matchup as Jayden Daniels returns for the Commanders against a Chargers team that was upset on the road last week. Jim Harbaugh's team should get back to basics here and lean on the ground game to open things up for Justin Herbert in what could be a game that comes down to the wire. Pick: Chargers, 28-23.

Line: Chargers -3

ML: Chargers

Spread: Chargers

New England Patriots (2-2) @ Buffalo Bills (4-0)

Sunday night in Buffalo and Bills Mafia will be rocking for this game against the division rival Patriots. This will be a big test for Drake Maye and this team to see if they're ready to push the Bills in this division. Pick: Bills, 27-20.

Line: Bills -8

ML: Bills

Spread: Patriots

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)

After starting the year with two straight losses, the Chiefs have rhymed off a pair of wins to get themselves back in the AFC West conversation. The Chiefs' defense will look to slow down an upstart Jags team and I anticipate Andy Reid having the right gameplan. Pick: Chiefs, 24-17.

Line: Chiefs -3.5

ML: Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs

Results

Week 4

ML: 11-5

ATS: 7-9

Overall

ML: 42-22 (65.6%)

ATS: 27-37 (42.2%)