Week 3 NFL Picks

The NFL season is in full swing with Week 3 on deck. Some surprising starts are leading the headlines, with the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans off to 0-2 starts and considered contenders to win their respective divisions heading into the season. I would say that's the storyline heading into Week 3, with several playoff caliber teams in an 0-2 hole and needing to dig themselves out of it. Let's dive into this week's game picks.

**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Sept. 21)

Buffalo Bills (2-0) @ Miami Dolphins (0-2)

The Dolphins are staring at an 0-3 start and their season slipping through their grasp. Despite the defensive injuries for the Bills heading into this game -- Ed Oliver and Matt Milano will sit this one out -- The Fins will be outmatched at line of scrimmage and their offense just isn't remotely on the same page right now. Pick: Bills, 27-17.

Line: Bills -11.5

ML: Bills

Spread: Dolphins

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) @ Carolina Panthers (0-2)

This is a game that should have bettors a bit nervous this week. On paper, the Falcons have the better offense, but this will be a desperate Panthers team playing at home and looking for their first win of the year. I'll take the road team on a late field goal to scrape by. Pick: Falcons, 23-20.

Line: Falcons -3.5

ML: Falcons

Spread: Panthers

Green Bay Packers (2-0) @ Cleveland Browns (0-2)

The weather doesn't look fun ahead of this game and because of that, I'm inclined to think it will be an under play here on the total. It might not be pretty, but I anticipate the Packers to come out of the Dawg Pound with a win here and much of that success will be predicated on how involved Josh Jacobs will be in the offensive gameplan. Pick: Packers, 20-10.

Line: Packers -7

ML: Packers

Spread: Packers

Houston Texans (0-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)

The Texans find themselves in a tough spot early in the season and really need a win coming out of Duval. C.J. Stroud is 3-1 against the Jags in his young career and this could be a great bounce back spot for him here. Pick: Texans, 20-17.

Line: Jaguars -1.5

ML: Texans

Spread: Texans

Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-1)

The Bengals find themselves 2-0, but their MVP signal-caller is now out for three months and they will need to rely on Jake Browning for the time being to step up in his absence. Do I like their odds? Not really. Browning showed he can be a serviceable back up two years ago, but I think this is a tough matchup on the road in Minnesota, who will get several defensive starters back this week. Pick: Vikings, 24-17.

Line: Vikings -5.5

ML: Vikings

Spread: Vikings

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) @ New England Patriots (1-1)

I haven't been impressed with the Steelers' defense to start the season as that was supposed to be the anchor that carried them through the season. I think Mike Tomlin will get his veteran group to play hard this week in what should be a defensive matchup and make life uncomfortable for Drake Maye in the pocket. Pick: Steelers, 20-16.

Line: Steelers -1

ML: Steelers

Spread: Steelers

Los Angeles Rams (2-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-0)

A rematch of the NFC Divisional game from last season in which Saquon Barkley was too much to handle for this Rams defense. I think this Rams team is sneaky good though and might be the front runners to win the NFC West when all is said and done. Matthew Stafford nearly took this team over the top in the playoffs last year and I think this will come down to the wire once more this week. Pick: Eagles, 27-24.

Line: Eagles -4.5

ML: Eagles

Spread: Rams

New York Jets (0-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)

With Justin Fields in concussion protocol, the Jets will lean on veteran Tyrod Taylor to start this game. It will likely be a popular survivor pool pick with the Bucs this week and I think the connection of Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans is on full display this week. Pick: Buccaneers, 26-15.

Line: Buccaneers -7.5

ML: Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers

Indianapolis Colts (2-0) @ Tennessee Titans (0-2)

The Colts have been the biggest surprise to start the year, or perhaps it's just the resurgence of Daniel Jones? They've scored on every offensive drive and Shane Steichen's gameplan has been terrific. How long will it last, who knows? But, right now they've got their sights set on a 3-0 start. Pick: Colts, 24-17.

Line: Colts -3

ML: Colts

Spread: Colts

Las Vegas Raiders (1-1) @ Washington Commanders (1-1)

The Commanders will need to lean on Marcus Mariota as Jayden Daniels takes the week off, which will pit him against his former college coach Chip Kelly. I like the home team here and it will be interesting to see the backfield share with Jacory Croskey-Merritt leading the way. Pick: Commanders, 21-17.

Line: Commanders -6.5

ML: Commanders

Spread: Raiders

Denver Broncos (1-1) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-0)

This is a huge game early on in the AFC West as the Broncos will be looking to keep pace with the Chargers in a potential winner takes first place matchup. I haven't like the start from Bo Nix so far and think this Chargers defense will create too many scheme problems for him. Give me the Chargers and a refreshed Justin Herbert. Pick: Chargers, 23-16.

Line: Chargers -2.5

ML: Chargers

Spread: Chargers

New Orleans Saints (0-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-1)

The Seahawks stole won on the road last week and now host the lowly Saints. One thing to watch is the absence of Zach Charbonnet in the backfield, so Kenneth Walker should get the lion's share of the carries. Pick: Seahawks, 23-15.

Line: Seahawks -7.5

ML: Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys (1-1) @ Chicago Bears (0-2)

This is a big spot for both teams as the Bears are looking to avoid the dreadful 0-3 start and the Cowboys have a chance to keep pace in the NFC East. Nobody is playing better at QB right now than Dak Prescott, who looks crisp and poised in the pocket. The emergence of Javonte Williams in the running game has been crucial for this offense too. Pick: Cowboys, 24-20.

Line: Cowboys -1.5

ML: Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys

Arizona Cardinals (2-0) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-0)

Both of these teams are looking to remain undefeated, but for me, the 2-0 record for the Cardinals is deceiving having beaten the Panthers and Saints. Despite being without Brock Purdy and George Kittle offensively, the Niners still have the biggest difference-maker on the field in Christian McCaffrey. Pick: 49ers, 24-21.

Line: 49ers -2.5

ML: 49ers

Spread: 49ers

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) @ New York Giants (0-2)

Seeing the Chiefs at 0-2 just doesn't seem right and had Travis Kelce not dropped a walk-in touchdown last week, we might be talking about a different narrative this week. Despite Russell Wilson's heroics, the Giants fell short in a thriller last week and something tells me he won't have that same time in the pocket against the Chiefs. Pick: Chiefs, 27-17.

Line: Chiefs -7

ML: Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs

Detroit Lions (1-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-1)

This is a great matchup in primetime and really, the Ravens should be a 2-0 team had they not let the opening week primetime game slip through their fingertips. I think Lamar Jackson's ability to run the football just continues to give defenses problems and that will be no different this week. Pick: Ravens, 30-23.

Line: Ravens -4.5

ML: Ravens

Spread: Ravens

Results

Week 2

ML: 11-5

ATS: 6-10

Overall

ML: 20-12

ATS: 12-20